Modeling Triage and Transport for Mass Casualty Incidents
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Date: 10-31-2006
Start Time:
1:00pm
End Time: 2:00pm
Speaker: Nathaniel Hupert, Cornell University, Weill Medical College
Location: Mudd 303
Abstract
The focus of our research group's
work over the past three years has
been developing models of
interconnected aspects of health
system response to mass casualty
incidents (MCIs). In this talk, we
address two important aspects of MCI
management: victim triage and
transport. First, we present results
of a new stochastic simulation model
linking MCI size, regional treatment
capacity, and field triage accuracy
(i.e., correctly identifying a
critically injured patient as such).
We find that, contrary to standard
medical wisdom, triage sensitivity
(and therefore the risk of 'overtriage' or filling emergency wards with
patients who "don't really need to
be
there") plays a relatively minor
role in dictating treatment outcomes
over a wide range of plausible
assumptions about treatment time,
etc. Second, we tackle the more
complex modeling problem of
transporting trauma victims to
hospitals after MCIs to ensure that
all patients receive care as quickly
as possible. We formulated and
implemented a MIP model to address
this problem and to aid in the
development of operational
guidelines for EMS providers.
Work conducted with Wei Xiong and
Eric Hollingsworth of Weill Medical
College and with Gabriel Tavares and
Alkis Vazacopoulos of Dash
Optimization
Bio
Nathaniel Hupert, M.D., M.P.H. is assistant professor of public health and medicine at Weill Medical College of Cornell University and assistant attending physician at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital. Over the past six years, Dr. Hupert has led a number of federally-funded projects to develop improved tools and logistics for mass prophylaxis, bioterrorism response, and health-system preparedness for surge capacity. His research team’s models are prominently featured on the Web sites of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) and American Hospital Association, and are used by states across the U.S. for preparedness planning. One of three academic researchers to serve on the Anthrax Modeling Working Group of the U.S. DHHS Secretary’s Council on Public Health Emergency Preparedness, he has lectured and given satellite and Web broadcasts for the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Centers for Disease Control on mass prophylaxis and the physicians’ role in bioterrorism response.